322 Feet: Prose from the Petco Porch

ESPN floated a rumor that KT has talked to Brian Cashman about trading Jake Peavy to the Yankees (hat tip MLBTR). Buster Olney says it’s barely worth mentioning, but it brings to mind the question: would it be worth it to trade Peavy now while his value is still high, or should the club hold onto him until his contract is up?

Olney names pitcher Phil Hughes and center fielder Melky Cabrera as the return for Peavy. I think it would take more than that to make a deal; Ian Kennedy has also been rumored to be available, so I’ll throw him in here as well, just for argument’s sake. I don’t think any Padre fan would say that Jake for Hughes and Cabrera is getting max value out of Jake.

Here are the 2008 ZIPS projections for all four players:

Jake Peavy (age 27): 33 GS, 17-7, 2.99 ERA, 214 IP, 181 H, 56 BB, 221 K

Phil Hughes (age 22): 26 GS, 12-5, 3.70 ERA, 141 IP, 136 H, 40 BB, 106 K
Ian Kennedy (age 23): 26 GS, 9-7, 4.38 ERA, 148 IP, 158 H, 42 BB, 94 K
Melky Cabrera (age 23): 159 G, .286 AVG (166/580), .352 OBP, .419 SLG, 83 R, 29 2B, 12 HR, 89 RBI, 59 BB, 65 K, 13 SB; rated “Very Good” at all 3 outfield spots

Given that this is all conjecture, I think that’s probably pretty fair value for Jake. Watching Hughes pitch, he has 4 solid pitches, including one of the better curves I’ve seen recently. He needs to learn to pitch a little more, but he’s got the stuff to get away with it for a while. I’ve heard him compared to Mike Mussina as far as style, and that sounds about right. Kennedy won’t blow you away with his stuff, but he locates relatively well and has enough confidence in his breaking stuff to throw it on any count. If Will Inman were ready right now, this is probably about what he would look like as far as stuff and approach. Cabrera has some nice tools; he is a guy who could slide into the 1 or 2 hole in the Pads lineup and fit right in. He’s a good enough OBP guy that I think Towers would bite on him; he’s also a plus defender, which they will need in Petco. Peavy aside, he’s probably someone we should consider for the center field spot if the price is right.

So, the question remains…trade Jake? The real question is, when do you want to contend?

If the answer is next year, then you simply cannot trade Jake now. This is likely the peak of his value; he’s not likely to replicate his 2007 line next year, although he should be close. If you’re going to go out and spend $15-$20 million to improve the club, you owe it to yourself to keep Jake as the centerpiece of the rotation. His consistency this year was unprecedented; when you have the best pitcher in the National League putting up 7 IP, 2 R, 8 K every 5 days, you’re going to have a chance to win almost every time out. He’s also been through three pennant races now, so theoretically he should be calm enough down the stretch to win in big games. We know Jake, so I’ll leave it at “theoretically;” we all know Jake can get too hyped up and hurt himself out there.

If you’re going to try the youth route and bring in kids to develop next year, then it makes tons of sense to deal Jake now if you can find the right package in return. If you can get two pitchers who could front your rotation for years to come – not to mention your future center fielder – then you can feel confident that you are getting fair value for Peavy. As mentioned above, he’s very unlikely to be as good as he was in 2007, although he should still be extremely good next year. Since the market for starters is weak this year, Peavy’s value is further inflated. Finally, given that Peavy’s high-torque motion puts a lot of stress on his shoulder, he just seems to be headed towards another significant injury, certainly worse than the broken rib he suffered in the 2005 playoffs.

So, my answer is “I don’t know.” Were I Mr. Towers, with a
better idea of how they want to construct the club for next year, I would give a more definitive answer. To make a long story short, it all depends on whether the Padres feel like they can contend next year with a few smaller additions.