322 Feet: Prose from the Petco Porch

Sorry for the layoff, school is owning my life right now…better stuff coming over the holiday weekend. I hope.

Not to beat a dead horse, but with Jake winning the CY, the Pads have started talking extension with agent Barry Axelrod. This is a pleasant surprise, as the general consensus seemed to be that Jake will play out 2008 in San Diego and then be traded for cheaper personnel. The Cy Young just pushed the value of his 2009 option to $11M; he’s due to make around $6M next year.

So, what does winning the award mean for Jake? He’ll probably get some extra nationwide fame and notoriety out of it, but you can’t pay for a car with fame and notoriety; primarily, this affects Jake’s price on the market. We already know what some of the bigger names are fetching; Carlos Zambrano, who hasn’t done nearly as much as Jake in the bigs, fetched $91.5M over 5 years, while 2002 AL Cy Young winner Barry Zito fetched $126M over 7 years. I think the award makes management willing to pay him a little more, but I still don’t think they will go past 5/75 with him. Would Jake take that money, or does he want the big payday? His agent is not named Boras, which is a good sign. Publicly, Jake and his agent have shown a desire to stay here; Axelrod told the UT that “Jake’s probably going to be willing to back off of Zambrano’s numbers,” while the man himself told padres.com that “I want to be a Padre for my career.”

Posturing? Who knows. Reason to be optimistic? Given the track record, I’m not making parade plans yet. Should we be encouraged? Probably.

So, what about that trade market? I have to think that Jake could pull at least what Miguel Cabrera seems to be drawing on the open market; i.e., a huge prospect package from an organization with a good farm system. We earlier mentioned Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera, but there would certainly be more suitors than that.

I do believe that this is the peak of Jake’s value, no matter how you slice it. If the Friars seriously want to make Jake the next in a tremendous line of career Padres, they will need to step up and pay up. If not, they’ll probably get more out of Jake on the market now than they will at any other point in his career. Personally, I think a bona-fide ace like Jake is probably the single most important element of any successful ballclub, especially one that plays 81 games in Petco Park; in spite of the injury risk, they would be wise to pay the man now and avoid taking a huge hit on the field and in the community when Jake walks after 2009.

The last thing the club needs is the PR fiasco that will ensue if they let Peavy, the guy who might end up being the best pitcher of this generation, walk because they wouldn’t pay him enough to remain a Padre.