Filed under: Stats & Analysis | Tags: Khalil Greene, Petco Park, sabermetrics, San Diego Padres
Seems like everyone and their mom is talking about Khalil lately and whether it’s a good value proposition to keep him around through the end of his contract. This is especially relevant since the likelihood of him signing an extension is seemingly low and the chatter about him being trade bait seems to get louder daily. Friar Forecast (Greene acres), Ducksnorts (The Khalil Conundrum) and The Sac Bunt (The kase against KT) have chimed in, among others. MB’s piece at Friar Forecast got me thinking about the types of balls Khalil hits and whether that might have something to do with all this.
Let’s first look at Khalil’s line-drive percentages, both in Petco Park and on the road. It’s been said that line-drive percentage can be a decent predictor of average and power. In 2007, Khalil posted a .197 ISO (SLG-AVG) at home; however, in doing so, he hit .215 in the process. On the road, his ISO jumped to .231, while his average jumped to .288; the average is significantly different, but I would argue that the power difference could be nothing more than the elevation change. So, do the line-drive percentages give us any clues as to why Khalil’s splits are so funky? To a point, yes, but I think that this might be a spurious correlation. At home, 15% of Khalil’s hits were line drives; on the road, 24% were liners. At a glance, this would seem to indicate that either the Petco environment or the perception of that in Khalil’s head lead him to get less solid contact at home. However, when we look at the 2006 numbers, it appears that this might not be the answer; his percentages were 22% at home and 24% on the road with similar ancillary splits (.210 AVG/.136 ISO at home, .280/.227 on the road). For reference, the league average line-drive percentage was 19.1% in 2007, while the league hit .271 with a .152 ISO. This probably merits a more in-depth look, but I don’t think there’s much here.
However, this does lead me to believe that another percentage might hold the key to this. When we take Khalil’s line-drive and ground-ball percentages and subtract them from 100%, we get the percentage of balls that Khalil hit in the air. At home in ‘07, this number came out to 48%; in 2006, the number was 49%. On the road, 41% of the balls Khalil hits were in the air.
Now we’re getting somewhere. Though the sample is kind of small, it’s clear that Khalil hits the ball in the air a little more at home than on the road. This leads me to believe that since Khalil hits the ball more in the air at Petco, there’s something either in the environment or in Khalil’s head that makes the ball hang up a little longer in Petco. Maybe it’s the big gaps, maybe it’s the climate, maybe it’s psychological…I’m not going to pretend to have the answer. However, I think this may indicate something about Khalil’s game that is not adaptable to Petco Park. The secondary numbers seem to back up this premonition; his BABIP at home over the last 2 years is .250, while it’s .302 on the road. Further, those 2 averages over the last 2 years have only varied by 1 point, which indicates that this might not be a fluke. The small sample size makes me a little skeptical, however.
Anybody think there’s anything to this?
Filed under: News, Stats & Analysis | Tags: Adam Jones, Bill Hall, David Wells, Jeremy Reed, Jim Edmonds, Joe Thatcher, Johnny Damon, Los Angeles Dodgers, Melky Cabrera, Randy Wolf, Reggie Willits, Ryan Church, San Diego Padres, Scott Linebrink, Tony Gwynn Jr., Trevor Hoffman
Now coming down the pipe: Randy Wolf will sign a 1-year deal with the Pads. I like this move; I got to watch Wolf pitch a little bit this year (again, I live in Dodgers’ TV territory) and he’s got underrated stuff. Not a terribly hard thrower (88-90 on the fastball), but he has a sharp, slow (~68 MPH) curveball and will get his share of strikeouts. Plus, he’s a lefty, and he’s not named David Wells. Without getting into the numbers of the deal, my gut says this is a good deal for the Friars.
As promised, here’s the remainder of the trade candidates for center field.
Jeremy Reed
Reed came up full-time in 2005, starting for the Mariners in center for most of the year. Over 144 games, he hit .254/.322/.352. However, in 2006, he dipped to .217 before an injury ended his season; in 2007, he fell off the radar, playing just 13 games in the bigs and being passed in the organization by Adam Jones. Reed did hit .298/.349/.451 in Tacoma last year, showing considerably more power than he did with the club in 2005 (although the hitter-friendly PCL probably had something to do with that). For me, he’s probably about a .260 hitter at best, although I’ve heard he’s a pretty good defensive player; he’d probably be very cheap, since he has little value to the mariners at this point in time. Might be another name to throw in the hat…
Jim Edmonds
Edmonds makes his second home on the disabled list, so he’s definitely an injury risk. He battled groin issues last year and underwent two surgeries after the 2006 season. His OPS has declined each of the last 4 years, starting at 1.061 before falling all the way to .727 last year. Some of the drop in power could be attributed to his injuries, so if he’s healthy, he might show a little more pop in 2008; however, the more likely scenario is that age is finally taking its toll on Edmonds. Looking at range factor, he still shows slightly above-average range in center, although he clearly is not the player he once was. He is also a little expensive, as he is due to make $8M in 2008. He might be able to recapture a little of the old magic, but the chances of that happening are slim. Bringing Edmonds in would be a needless risk, in my opinion.
Tony Gwynn Jr.
Ah, the hometown favorite. Gwynn raised his profile by beating Trevor Hoffman for a game-tying triple on the final weekend of the season with the Pads one pitch away from clinching a playoff berth. He’s currently blocked by Bill Hall in Milwaukee, so he would likely be available for the right price. In fact, Towers tried to get Gwynn in the deal that brought Joe Thatcher over for Scott Linebrink. Gwynn served mostly off the bench for the Brewers in 2007, hitting .260 over 123 at-bats; he’s a career .272 minor league hitter. As far as a major league comparison, I’d say Gwynn looks like a poor man’s Reggie Willits; pretty good average & OBP, no power, good speed, good defense, lousy arm. Good enough for the Pads? Only as a fallback if nothing else pans out.
Johnny Damon
The Yankees seem desperate to pawn off Damon on anyone who will pay a part of his substantial 2008 salary. Melky Cabrera has supplanted Damon in center field for the Yanks, and they do not have room for him in the outfield anymore. For all the whining out of New York, Damon still had a pretty decent 2007; he hit .270/.351/.396 in 141 games. For his career, he’s a .288/.353/.433 hitter with an OPS+ of 102. Those are pretty good numbers for a center fielder, especially in the power department; his numbers dipped last year, at least partly due to an abdominal problem that dogged him in the second half. The perception in the media is that Damon does not have legs to play center anymore; however, his range factor has been above league average each of the last five years, and he still shows good speed on the basepaths (27 SB in 2007). If he’s healthy and still fast enough to play center, he’d probably be a very good fit here; rangy, nice OBP, shows a little gap power. He’s still under contract through 2009 at a problematic $13M per, though, so that could be an issue in trade talks.
Ryan Church
Oops. Looks like we’re a little late on this one. He was traded to New York on Friday.
Filed under: Stats & Analysis | Tags: Chase Headley, David DeJesus, Eric Chavez, Eric Owens, Gary Matthews Jr., Joey Gathright, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mark Kotsay, Matt Antonelli, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Cameron, Nate McLouth, Oakland A's, Pittsburgh Pirates, Reggie Willits, San Diego Padres, Torii Hunter, Travis Buck, Xavier Nady
Well, we’ve all probably heard the disheartening trade rumor involving Chase Headley to the Pirates for Xavier Nady and Nate McLouth. Don’t get me wrong; I like X, and McLouth is intriguing. However, why would you give up Head for so little? Especially considering that X still embodies the characteristics (low OBP, can’t hit righties, etc.) that made you want to get rid of him in the first place? I hope it’s just conjecture…I really don’t think this is a serious offer, at least from the Pads’ standpoint.
Well, enough of that unpleasantness. On to the trade candidates…note that not all of these guys have been mentioned in rumors. Some of them are pure speculation on my part as to who might be a decent trade partner. The list ended up being unexpectedly long, so I’m breaking it into 2 parts; I’ll go over a few of the players today, and the rest (hopefully) tomorrow.
Nate McLouth
We may as well start with the flavor of the week. Mentioned in the Nady-for-Headley rumor today, McLouth hit .258/.351/.459 in 137 games with the Bucs last year. His career big league line is .249/.322/.429 over 284 games; not exactly the stuff of legend, but I wouldn’t say it’s much worse than Cammy would have done. Defensively, McLouth posted a 2.62 range factor and an .886 zone rating, which puts him roughly mid-pack among all NL center fielders. He’s been in the bigs full time since 2006; in 5 minor league seasons, he put up a solid line of .292/.362/.427. A BABIP of .297 in 2007 indicates that his line is probably pretty close to his ability level; moving to Petco, expect the numbers to drop a little, maybe 5-10 points. As far as price, he’s probably not worth it if the deal involves Headley; that’s the offer that was mentioned this morning. If they can swing the deal for someone of lesser value, though, McLouth might be a decent fit. I don’t think I’d go any farther than decent, though.
David DeJesus
Some have mentioned DeJesus as a nice fit, particularly because he fits this new “good OBP” mold that KT and the gang are hooked on (with good reason). DeJesus is a .282/.358/.415 player over 4 years as a starter in K.C.; a pretty decent line, all told, for a center fielder. Last year, he experienced a bit of decline, hitting just .260 with a paltry slugging percentage of .372; unfortunately, it looks like this line is closer to his talent level than the 3 years prior. His BABIPs for 2004-2006: .320, .335, .332. In 2007? .291. Not a sexy pick, but probably a very realistic one; with Joey Gathright behind him, and the Royals apparently hellbent on getting a free agent CF, he can likely be had for cheap.
Reggie Willits
I live in Temecula, so we get Angels games up here; I’ll tune in when the Pads play an early game and the Angels have a late game, or vice versa. I took a liking to Reggie this year; he’s the closest thing to Eric Owens since Eric Owens. Gritty guy, plays his ass off, jersey always dirty…and he can get on base, too. He hit .293 with a stellar .391 OBP for Anaheim last year. Of course, that all comes with a pathetic .344 slugging percentage, so don’t expect Mike Cameron; this guy won’t do anything more than hit singles, take walks, steal bases and make plays in center. Reggie appears to be tremendously lucky, posting a very high .363 BABIP in ‘07; however, Reggie’s BABIP has consistently been in the .340-.370 range through the minors, so maybe there’s something to it. His name keeps coming up in the Miggy Cabrera rumors, and with Torii Hunter now in center, Willits is expendable (read: cheap).
Gary Matthews Jr.
Not so cheap is another expendable Angels center fielder. The former Friar signed a 5 year deal last year at $10M per and was lauded as the answer for the Angels in center; however, he proved his 2006 was a fluke (or a product of that bandbox in Arlington), regressing back to .252/.323/.419 in Anaheim. His .283 BABIP in ‘07 indicates he’s probably a little better than that; I’d anticipate him being closer to his career line of .261/.334/.419 in ‘08. Still not worth $10M a year for 4 years. I wouldn’t seriously consider Matthews.
Mark Kotsay
Longtime Padre fans likely remember Kotsay trolling around center here from 2001-2003. He was a favorite of mine during my high school days, probably because his play reminded me of the aforementioned Owens (if you can’t tell, he was probably my favorite Padre of the early ’00s in spite of his average ability). Kotsay’s a career .282/.337/.415 hitter, pretty similar to DeJesus’ line. He suffered back issues last year and only got into 56 games, hitting only .214. In ‘06, he hit .275 with a .294 BABIP, so we can probably expect similar numbers in 2008 if he’s healthy. Due to the injury, he might be had cheap; he’s certainly worth looking into as a low-risk, medium-reward trade option.
Travis Buck
My brother suggested Buck as an option, and it kinda makes sense; Oakland has a surplus of center fielders with Swisher, Kotsay, et al., while we have a surplus at 3B with Kouz apparently entrenched there now. We have a hole in CF with Cameron now apparently out, and Oakland has a quasi-hole at third with Chavez’s health (and the team’s desire to keep him) still in question. A Headley for Buck and token prospect deal almost makes sense. Buck hit .288/.377/.474 last year in 83 games, with a stellar OPS+ of 130. His BABIP of .347 suggests he played a little over his head in 2007, so that’s something to be aware of. Using very unscientific methods to adjust his BABIP back down to league average (.290), I come up with a line of .235/.327/.388; his real talent level probably lies somewhere in between. Like our own Matt Antonelli, he didn’t have much minor league experience before coming up; he played only 127 games in the minors and only 52 above A ball. In those games, however, he hit .325/.398/.510, pretty good numbers by any standard; thus, he’s probably going to be a solid major leaguer. Swapping him for Headley would be an exchange of two prospects on roughly the same plane of talent; surprisingly, I think this might be a fair deal.
More to come…
Filed under: Stats & Analysis | Tags: San Diego Padres, Brian Giles, Mike Cameron, Kosuke Fukudome, Aaron Rowand, Andruw Jones, Kenny Lofton, Adrian Gonzalez, Hideki Matsui, Chunichi Dragons, Tokyo Yomiuri Giants, Dave Roberts
A little late, I know, but here’s a look at the possible free agent targets for center field in 2008. I’ll have something on the potential trade candidates later tonight.
Aaron Rowand
Rowand was healthy for all of 2007 after a nasty collision with the center field fence in Citizens Bank Park cost him about 60 games in 2006. He responded with a breakout year, going .309/.374/.515, including 45 doubles and 27 home runs. All this computes to a 123 OPS+ and a 7.8 WARP1; basically, Rowand had a stellar season by any standard you want to measure with. However, Rowand’s career numbers tell a somewhat jumbled story. His career line is .286/.343/.462 with an OPS+ of 106. When you look at the four years he’s been a full-time player, though, he’s really had 2 outstanding years and 2 mediocre years. Here are Rowand’s numbers over the last 4 years:
Year Team AVG OBP SLG OPS+ WARP1
2004 CWS .310 .361 .544 130 5.3
2005 CWS .270 .329 .407 93 4.1
2006 PHI .262 .321 .425 86 3.0
2007 PHI .309 .374 .515 123 7.8
So, was Rowand lucky in ‘04 and ‘07, or unlucky in ‘05 and ‘06? BABIP tells us the answer is the former; from 2004 to 2007, he posted BABIPs of .341, .318, .297 and .350. As noted in earlier posts, league average is about .290. Though not definitive, these numbers suggest that Rowand’s natural talent level is closer to his ‘05/’06 numbers. As a point of comparison, ZIPS has Rowand at .276/.339/.444 next year, although those numbers are adjusted for playing 81 games in Citizens Bank Park. Qualitatively, he’s not a great OBP guy unless he’s hitting over .300, his power comes in fits and spurts, and his defense may be a bit overrated (just my opinion). In that case, at the 5 year/$60M price tag indicated by Randy Miller of PhillyBurbs (hat tip MLBTR), I will pass.
Andruw Jones
Tom Krasovic noted a few weeks ago that the Pads might make a one year offer to the esteemed Mr. Jones, he of the .222 average in 2007. The Pads would offer Jones about $17M; a huge price for any player, especially when you consider that this is the Padres talking. In prior years, Jones was a rather productive hitter hampered by a mediocre batting average and a high strikeout rate.
Talking to my brother a few weeks ago, I called Jones “Mike Cameron with more power.” Is that a fair statement? That depends on whether you can call Jones’ 2007 a fluke. I think, to a point, you can characterize Jones’ 2007 season as a string of bad luck; his BABIP was just .248, well below the league average. Adjusted for a league-average BABIP, Jones would have hit .259, right in line with his career numbers. However, his power dropped substantially last year as well, his slugging percentage falling a full 80 points below his career average. Whether this is related to luck or other factors, such as a withdrawal from performance enhancers, is a matter of conjecture. I would lean towards the former; he’s only posted an OPS below the league average once outside of last year and his peripherals indicate that there were other factors affecting him in 2007. For perspective, PECOTA’s 10th percentile projection for Jones in 2007 was .243/.323/.451, indicating that there was less than a 10% chance Jones would be as bad as he was last year.
“Mike Cameron with more power?” That’s probably unfair to Jones. However, is Jones really twice the player Cameron is? If the Pads were to pay Jones over double what they paid Cameron, that is essentially what the club would be saying. I don’t think I would go that far, but given the market and the need for another bat to protect Adrian Gonzalez in the order, it might be worth overpaying to get him in here.
Kenny Lofton
Here’s a name no one seems to be talking about. Lofton hit .296/.367/.414 for Texas and Cleveland last year, very close to his career line of .299/.372/.423. Lofton is very much a singles hitter, while still exhibiting good speed (23 steals in ‘07) and decent range (with a terrible arm) in center. Wow, it’s like Dave Roberts came back to life with 30 extra points of batting average! He’d certainly be a hell of a lot cheaper than Jones/Rowand/et al., and he does some things that help the club win games. According to Baseball Prospectus’ MORP formula, Lofton’s 2007 was worth about $5.4M. If the Padres fail to land one of the big fishes, Lofton might be a nice fallback option, but I wouldn’t make him our #1 target. There are better names out there, whether they come via free agency or trade.
Kosuke Fukudome
As a Japanese player, Fukudome is a bit of an enigma; we don’t really know how he’ll do against players in this league. Fukudome suffered an elbow injury in the middle of the 2007 season; prior to that he hit .294/.443/.520 with Chunichi. For his career, he’s a .305/.397/.543 player; look here for his NPB statistics. A good comparison might be Hideki Matsui, who hit .304/.413/.582 in Japan (NPB stats here) before coming to the Yankees. Matsui has hit .295/.371/.485 since coming to the States in 2003. If Fukudome can come close to those numbers, he’ll be worth at least the $12M per year that he’s expected to fetch. Problem is, it looks like he’ll be no better in center than Brian Giles, and he might be worse. According to Mike Plugh (via MLBTR), Fukudome’s best defensive position is right, which may create a defensive problem for the Friars. However, if he hits anywhere close to the way Matsui did when he came over, it would likely be worth the defensive headaches we may experience with one of these guys in center.
Filed under: Stats & Analysis | Tags: San Diego Padres, Brian Giles, Mike Cameron, Jason Lane, Kosuke Fukudome, Geoff Jenkins, Cedric Hunter
Well, with Mike Cameron a free agent and Cedric Hunter still a few years away, center field might be the biggest hole the Pads need to fill before the start of next season. As it stands now, assuming no moves between now and opening day, it will be Brian Giles or Jason Lane in center on March 31. It’s very likely the Pads will look outside for help, so let’s run down the candidates for the position in ‘08. Today I’ll look at the in-house candidates; over the next few days, I’ll also comment on the free agent and trade possibilities. Finally, I’ll make my recommendation for who the Pads should use in center in 2008.
THE INCUMBENTS
Mike Cameron
The 2006 Gold Glove winner took a step back in 2007, his average dropping from .268 to .242 while posting his second highest strikeout total of his career. His on base percentage dropped 30 points from 2006, while his slugging percentage dropped 50. He still managed to post an OPS+ over the league average, although his 2007 number was down 18 points from 2006 (121 to 103). Though his defense is still well regarded, he struggled through the first few months of the season, losing multiple balls in the dusk at home. All this certainly hurt his value on the free agent market; now that his 25-game amphetamine suspension will cut out a part of his 2008 season, his value has dropped even further. He could still be had cheap; in spite of everything, he was also one of the Pads’ more valuable players overall last year, garnering 22 win shares (3rd on the club) and a 5.1 WARP1. However, given the stigma associated with his suspension, in addition to his lackluster 2007 season, signs point to Cameron having a new home for the 2008 season.
Brian Giles
I know, Giles is the incumbent in right, but the possibility still remains that the Friars could sign a quality right fielder, i.e. Kosuke Fukudome or Geoff Jenkins, and move Gilly to center. Giles has played center in the past, posting 301 games in central over his career. However, only 18 of those games have come with the Pads, and only 1 in the last 2 years. Even so, he still shows good range in the outfield, as well as a decent arm. Giles’ offensive profile certainly fits better in center than it does in right, given his high OBP and loss of power in recent years. By all accounts Giles is not the player he once was; still, he managed to post a respectable OPS+ of 109 as well as a decent 3.2 WARP1. If the Pads can bring in a right fielder who can do better than Cameron’s 2007 line, it might be worth it to consider Giles in center, since he still presents a viable defensive option as well as lots of aptitude with the stick.
Jason Lane
Don’t forget about Jason Lane, either. Picked up during the last week of the season after the catastrophic injuries to Cameron and Milton Bradley, Lane only posted 2 at bats with the Friars, going hitless. With Houston, he was a disaster, hitting just .178 over 169 at-bats. Hold on a second there, professor. As noted by many scribes, KT likes to use a statistic called BABIP (batting average on balls in play) to measure how lucky or unlucky a player was in a given season; it can help indicate how far off of a player’s natural talent level a given statistical line is. Looking at Lane’s 2006 and 2007, he hit .201 and .178, respectively. However, he had a BABIP of .217 in 2006 and .168 in 2007. According to Fan Interference, league average is about .290. This indicates that Lane has been terrificly unlucky over the past 2 years. This does not mean that we can automatically expect Lane to perform to his potential in 2008; however, I definitely would not sleep on him having a big year given the chance to play everyday. Defensively, I don’t know a lot about Lane; he’s posted a 106 Rate2 in center over his career (100 is average). TangoTiger’s Fan Scouting Report puts Lane at a 56, which is about average. This is definitely a KT kind of move: buy low on a player who may have been unlucky, put him in San Diego with a supportive team behind him, and let him go to work. Lane is definitely a player I will have my eye on next year as a potential bounce-back guy.
OK, enough for today. Tomorrow: the free agent guys. Saturday: the trade candidates. Sunday: my recommendation.
Filed under: Stats & Analysis | Tags: Ian Kennedy, Jake Peavy, Kevin Towers, Melky Cabrera, New York Yankees, Phil Hughes, San Diego Padres, Will Inman
ESPN floated a rumor that KT has talked to Brian Cashman about trading Jake Peavy to the Yankees (hat tip MLBTR). Buster Olney says it’s barely worth mentioning, but it brings to mind the question: would it be worth it to trade Peavy now while his value is still high, or should the club hold onto him until his contract is up?
Olney names pitcher Phil Hughes and center fielder Melky Cabrera as the return for Peavy. I think it would take more than that to make a deal; Ian Kennedy has also been rumored to be available, so I’ll throw him in here as well, just for argument’s sake. I don’t think any Padre fan would say that Jake for Hughes and Cabrera is getting max value out of Jake.
Here are the 2008 ZIPS projections for all four players:
Jake Peavy (age 27): 33 GS, 17-7, 2.99 ERA, 214 IP, 181 H, 56 BB, 221 K
Phil Hughes (age 22): 26 GS, 12-5, 3.70 ERA, 141 IP, 136 H, 40 BB, 106 K
Ian Kennedy (age 23): 26 GS, 9-7, 4.38 ERA, 148 IP, 158 H, 42 BB, 94 K
Melky Cabrera (age 23): 159 G, .286 AVG (166/580), .352 OBP, .419 SLG, 83 R, 29 2B, 12 HR, 89 RBI, 59 BB, 65 K, 13 SB; rated “Very Good” at all 3 outfield spots
Given that this is all conjecture, I think that’s probably pretty fair value for Jake. Watching Hughes pitch, he has 4 solid pitches, including one of the better curves I’ve seen recently. He needs to learn to pitch a little more, but he’s got the stuff to get away with it for a while. I’ve heard him compared to Mike Mussina as far as style, and that sounds about right. Kennedy won’t blow you away with his stuff, but he locates relatively well and has enough confidence in his breaking stuff to throw it on any count. If Will Inman were ready right now, this is probably about what he would look like as far as stuff and approach. Cabrera has some nice tools; he is a guy who could slide into the 1 or 2 hole in the Pads lineup and fit right in. He’s a good enough OBP guy that I think Towers would bite on him; he’s also a plus defender, which they will need in Petco. Peavy aside, he’s probably someone we should consider for the center field spot if the price is right.
So, the question remains…trade Jake? The real question is, when do you want to contend?
If the answer is next year, then you simply cannot trade Jake now. This is likely the peak of his value; he’s not likely to replicate his 2007 line next year, although he should be close. If you’re going to go out and spend $15-$20 million to improve the club, you owe it to yourself to keep Jake as the centerpiece of the rotation. His consistency this year was unprecedented; when you have the best pitcher in the National League putting up 7 IP, 2 R, 8 K every 5 days, you’re going to have a chance to win almost every time out. He’s also been through three pennant races now, so theoretically he should be calm enough down the stretch to win in big games. We know Jake, so I’ll leave it at “theoretically;” we all know Jake can get too hyped up and hurt himself out there.
If you’re going to try the youth route and bring in kids to develop next year, then it makes tons of sense to deal Jake now if you can find the right package in return. If you can get two pitchers who could front your rotation for years to come – not to mention your future center fielder – then you can feel confident that you are getting fair value for Peavy. As mentioned above, he’s very unlikely to be as good as he was in 2007, although he should still be extremely good next year. Since the market for starters is weak this year, Peavy’s value is further inflated. Finally, given that Peavy’s high-torque motion puts a lot of stress on his shoulder, he just seems to be headed towards another significant injury, certainly worse than the broken rib he suffered in the 2005 playoffs.
So, my answer is “I don’t know.” Were I Mr. Towers, with a
better idea of how they want to construct the club for next year, I would give a more definitive answer. To make a long story short, it all depends on whether the Padres feel like they can contend next year with a few smaller additions.
Filed under: News, Stats & Analysis | Tags: Chicago Cubs, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, Joe Nathan, John Maine, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres
Just got in from work and I see that Greg Maddux has re-signed for 2008. AP is reporting it as a 1-year deal for $10M.
Off the cuff, I like this move. The dude just will not die; he’s been as consistent as anybody in the league for about 20 years now and didn’t seem to show many signs of age last year. Let’s dive into the numbers and see if they support that.
By most standards, Maddux was pretty successful in his first year as a Friar, posting a 14-11 record and a 4.14 ERA over 198 innings. That ERA figure is actually down a tick from his 2006 number (4.20). However, there were some signs that could be interpreted as decline. Maddux’s hit rate jumped from 9.4 in 2006 to 11.0 in 2007; this can be attributed either to a loss of control due to age or merely luck (his BABIP was a little high at .315). Predictably, his homer rate dropped from .85 to .63 due to Petco’s pitcher-friendly alleys.
Park-adjusted numbers are a mixed bag. ERA+ has him at only 98, or below the league average; however, his 35.7 VORP places him 45th in the league, ahead of such notables as Curt Schilling, John Maine, Joe Nathan and Derek Lowe. Maddux’s VORP is also up from his 32.7 last year between the Cubs and Dodgers. Finally, Maddux tied with Daisuke Matsuzaka for 27th in the league in expected wins with 13.4.
Maddux has always thrown a lot of first pitch strikes (64% career, vs 57% league average). This year, that number jumped even higher, to 68%. That might have accounted for a little bit of that jump in his hit rate; more specifically, it looks like Maddux pitched in the zone a little more last year, thinking the ballpark would back him up.
I heard many folks complain that Maddux stunk when he got deep into games this year; looking at the numbers, he was not nearly as bad as others thought him to be. From pitch 76 onward, Maddux’s ERA was 4.07 in 17.2 innings; that’s actually below his season average. Maddux had far more problems early in games; over his first 30 pitches, Mad Dog’s ERA was a painful 7.29. That would lead me to believe that Maddux has a harder time finding a rhythm now than he did five years ago.
ZIPS sees Maddux posting similar numbers in 2008; they have him at 14-11 with a 3.91 ERA over 200 innings. Sound familiar? Maddux has owned that line for the last five years. It would not surprise me at all to see him duplicate his 2007 numbers, or perhaps be a little better now that he’s learned how to pitch to the ballpark. His August numbers pointed in that direction (3-1, 2.37), but his September numbers were his worst all season (4-2, 6.14).
All things considered, Maddux looks like he’s at worst a league average starter; in this day and age, that can be hard to find, so $10M might not be overpaying for him. Beyond his performance on the mound, he appeared to help Peavy out tremendously this year concerning his approach and efficiency. Given all that he brings, this looks like a solid signing for the Pads. See the future Hall of Famer while you still can.
Filed under: Stats & Analysis | Tags: Bill James, Brad Penny, Brandon Webb, C.C. Sabathia, Chris Young, David Wells, Jake Peavy, Josh Beckett, San Diego Padres
Stat guru and Red Sox advisor Bill James recently published his list of the top 50 young players in baseball. He listed our own Jake Peavy at #17. Given Jake’s numbers that year, James’ rating is questionable in and of itself. But the esteemed Mr. James isn’t done; here’s what he had to say about #44.
17. Jake Peavy, San Diego starting pitcher (26).
Often cited as the best starting pitcher in baseball, which probably has quite a bit to do with park effects. Padre fans at this moment are bellowing that Peavy was 10-1 with a 2.57 ERA on the road, as if this should preclude us from taking park effects into account.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/11/02/billjames.talent/index.html
OK, we all know Petco has a favorable effect on pitchers. That’s not the question at the heart of this. What we should really ask is whether Jake is still the pitcher we see on the field when you subtract the influence of the ballpark. Let’s look at a few park-adjusted stats, as Mr. James recommends, and compare Jake with a few of the other preeminent pitchers in the game today.
Peavy: 19-6, 2.54 ERA, 9.67 K/9, 159 ERA+ (1st among MLB pitchers), 17.9 expected wins (1st), 77.0 VORP (1st)
Brandon Webb (ARZ): 18-10, 3.01 ERA, 7.38 K/9, 156 ERA+ (2nd), 15.9 expected wins (3rd), 66.1 VORP (2nd)
Josh Beckett (BOS): 20-7, 3.27 ERA, 8.69 K/9, 145 ERA+ (7th), 13.7 expected wins (21st), 58.6 VORP (9th)
C.C. Sabathia (CLE): 19-7, 3.21 ERA, 7.80 K/9, 143 ERA+ (8th), 15.2 expected wins (7th), 65.2 VORP (3rd)
Brad Penny (LAD): 16-4, 3.03 ERA, 5.84 K/9, 151 ERA+ (T-3rd), 16.1 expected wins (2nd), 61.7 VORP (5th)
So, when looking at three significant park-adjusted measures of pitcher value, Peavy still ranks first among all MLB pitchers for the 2007 season. This is not to say that no other pitcher is in Jake’s league; the margins in all 3 categories are close, as the likes of Webb, Sabathia and Penny are all very close to Jake.
As with all numbers, they don’t tell the whole story, and from having watched Jake all year long, I would say that no starter in the National League was more valuable to his team than Jake Peavy. When the Pads needed someone to step up and stop a losing streak, Jake stepped up. When CY got hurt and Boomer proved ineffective, Jake basically carried the staff for 2 months. Even taking into consideration the fact that Jake came up small in the two biggest games of the year, he was one of the better big-game pitchers in the National League up until the final bell; consider his 9-1 record and 2.28 ERA over August and September, not counting the playoff against the Rockies, which obviously counts for a lot in the hearts and minds of many fans.
So, Mr. James, whether you judge it by the numbers or by the seat of the pants, one thing is clear: Jake Peavy is one of the top 5 pitchers in the game today.
No matter what ballpark he pitches in.
